~ Overcliff, Frederickstown, Saevitian Archipelago. 1530 hours SA time. ~
The young man in the faded blue greatcoat watched dispassionately from the edge of the promenade, taking in the scene below from behind the sturdy railing. Two hundred feet below him he could see the main buildings of the Portside neighborhood of Waterfall City, where the Caledonia River had once plunged into the sea (now it was mostly dammed for use in the waterways of Frederickstown and diverted for agriculture and industry). And he reflected on how much the island had changed since he was a boy.
Once Saint Clair Island, the largest of the many islands making up the Archipelago, had been mostly farmland and empty space, with high snowcapped mountains always looming in the distance (and being exploited by weekend vacationers). Frederickstown had still been its largest city, but back then it had fewer than five million inhabitants, compared to more than thirty million today. There had once been marked separation between Frederickstown and Waterfall City, a stretch of the Caledonia along which no houses or buildings stood; now the capital was nearly on top of the port, sometimes literally, as here. And leading into the heart of the island from Frederickstown there was a new canal under construction, only half completed and already a major artery of commerce and industry.
Over the noises of the city and the distant sounds of the sea and the river, the young man heard footsteps, and turned around to face Frederickstown itself. He saw the distant skyscrapers, arranged in clusters around key neighbourhoods; he saw Lock #1 on the main Caledonia opening to allow a dozen boats access to the Waterfall City run; he saw the older buildings of Overcliff neighborhood, some of them dating back four or five hundred years, to the days when it had been a separate village an hour on horseback from Frederickstown itself. But he didn't really take those in the way he took in the man wearing a colonel's uniform, walking briskly across the promenade towards him with a newspaper in his hand.
"Still watching the press, Uncle?" asked the young man, the ghost of a smile hovering on his face.
The older man shook the newspaper at the younger one. "You'd do well to remember the power of the press, boy," he said. "It served your father well."
"Ah yes, my father, who did very little of consequence as I recall, because he was too worried about what people would think?" The young man leaned back against the railing, watching his boot tap against the brickwork. "Regardless. Let's have this paper, then."
"You're missing the point, Matthew -- as usual," said the older man. "Under your father's rule, Saevitia worked. It prospered. True, most of this was due to plans set in motion by your grandfather, but even if Robert did not take stands on major political issues, he accomplished things of importance for the nation as a whole -- rather than for any political faction."
King Matthew I frowned. "Mother was right. They only ever call you 'Your Majesty' when the cameras are rolling." He reached for the newspaper. "What did you wish to show me, Uncle?"
His father's brother, who was technically Prince Konrad, the Duke of Grandon, the Count of Frederickstown, and numerous other historically significant but ultimately meaningless titles, stabbed a finger meaningfully at the headline below the fold on page one.
IS WAR INEVITABLE?
The SARN mobilization is ostensibly a military exercise and blockade of a rogue state. But is it definitely going to lead to full-scale war, or only possibly?
Matthew scanned it, his frown deepening. "They do know that if we consider it a rogue state, diplomatic measures such as declarations of war can't be levied against it, right?"
"A formality," said Konrad smoothly. "We can still shoot at them. And it is the opinion of many that we will, whether we say so or not."
"So... what? I am to initial a declaration of war just because people want it?"
"You misunderstand, Matthew. People do not necessarily want it. But they expect it. It is likely that if it happens, they will accept it. Not wildly patriotic, but not openly disapproving."
"I see."
"Good."
"But what is the point of any measure other than warfare? Even the embargo has been ineffective. There are still foreign ships docking in Zakrapat, ignoring our statements."
"On the contrary. The embargo has been quite effective indeed. We maintain a small but active satellite network and regular long air patrols -- we know who is trading with Zakrapat despite our embargo. It's a corporation, one dealing mainly in oil, armaments, and mercenaries. Griffincrest. You probably wouldn't recognize the name anyway. Now that we know, we're going to bring them to court."
Matthew paused for a moment. "We can sue a corporation that is not a Saevitian national, over a violation of international law?"
Konrad twinkled at him. "Watch and see, boy."
~ Some six hundred nautical miles from Zakrapatian waters. ~
The initial taskforce deployed by the Saevitians was not large. It was one of the anti-piracy squadrons, usually sent to clean up troubled areas where merchant ships had disappeared or suffered damage, comprising no more than a dozen vessels. Its mission had been made very clear: prevent any international shipping from entering Zakrapatian waters, apart from humanitarian missions.
Commodore Valen Seria was leading the operation from the Athens-class ACL, Chennai. It was expected to be a relatively simple, if potentially long and rather boring, operation. Yes, they would experience resistance -- naturally -- but short of the actual Zakrapatian military attacking them, it seemed unlikely that anything could seriously shake the strike force. Nonetheless, Seria was rather apprehensive, as he stared across the endless sea from the carrier's deck. The contested region was full of violence, which could easily spill over onto his taskforce, and somehow the knowledge that SARN would show up in force were his squadron to be destroyed didn't help much. Seria was fine with dying for his country, but he'd much rather live to a ripe old age for it if that was a possible alternative.
Noises from behind him alerted him; he turned to see four K-39s rolling out of the elevator, evidently preparing for a flight switch. He decided he wanted to keep his hearing for a few more years and turned to go inside.
Official CSSA Communication
Encryption: Standard (key provided)
Dear Mr. Law:
Despite the apparent mobilization of the SARN, we do not intend, at present, to launch a military incursion into the Friedlichen-Zakrapat region, unless Saevitian nationals or shipping are threatened. Moreover, should our intervention be required at a later date, the Saevitian forces deployed would most likely be sufficient in numbers and training to deal with any enemy forces they encounter. In the unlikely event that the Confederacy's assistance would be required, however, we would be glad to contact you. In the meanwhile, we would welcome Mr. Halbi and his staff, if they are indeed interested in assisting us to maintain our embargo in force against Zakrapat.
Gerard Karajan
Sir Gerard Karajan
Crown Secretary for Foreign Affairs
9th Earl of Saint Thomas Island, etc., etc.
[OOC: I'll get to the embassy later.]